Despite the occasional Krugman, most economists are scratching their heads. What is the Obama Administration doing? It just doesn't make economic sense. First, we get this stimulus bill, which amounts to an unprecedented wealth transfer. Now, coming down the pike, we have a budget so ambitious that even some in the Administration's own party are wondering if there's a little too much Audacity in all this Hope. But we're reminded ad nauseam that a) Obama has an electoral mandate, b) there is an economic "crisis," and c) they'll have to act swiftly and decisively to stave off economic catastrophe.
Still, the economics are curious. Indeed, economists and econ-minded pundits alike seem to be laboring under the assumption that, given said crisis, the Obama Administration and Congress, while acting in good faith, are probably embracing bad economic policy. Here, for example, is Nobel Prize-winning economist Gary Becker weighing in:
The rush to "solve" the problems of the crisis has opened the door to government actions on many fronts. Many of these have little or nothing to do with the crisis or its causes. For example, the Obama administration has proposed sweeping changes to labour market policies to foster unionisation and a more centralised setting of wages, even though the relative freedom of US labour markets in no way contributed to the crisis and would help to keep it short. Similarly, the backlash against capitalism and "greed" has been used to justify more antitrust scrutiny, greater regulation of a range of markets, and an expansion of price controls for healthcare and pharmaceuticals. The crisis has led to a bail-out of the US car industry and a government role in how it will be run. Even one of the most discredited ideas, protectionism, has gained support under the guise of stimulating the economy. Such policies would be a mistake. They make no more sense today than they did a few years ago and could take a long time to reverse.
Everyone seems to think that President Obama is listening to a cadre of brilliant, well-trained economic advisors who will steer us out of an exceptional economic doldrums—which is "the worst since the Great Depression" (we're told). It's just questionable economic theory guiding the Administration, then, right? Many of us have taken shots at trying to explain to anyone who will listen that raining largesse from on high a la J. M. Keynes just ain't gonna work.
As for me, the penny has dropped: If the multi-trillion-dollar credit card, massive redistribution schemes, and behemoth budget seem so zany, why is anyone continuing to think of any of this is economic policy at all? Why don't we think of it as, well, politics? Shrewd and well-played politics at that. For if we do, everything the current leadership is doing makes perfect sense.
Consider the following ten assumptions of the Political Power & Government Expansion Hypothesis:
What does all this mean? It means it's time for the commentariat to be more cynical. It's time to call spades spades. Let's stop trying to explain, on economic grounds, that warmed-over Keynesianism won't help us out of the recession—as if those in power cared about growth (or the electorate understood our explanations), anyway.
Milton Friedman used to say that we should always assume the best of intentions in any adversary. We probably should. But we should also understand that when addressing ideologues that have power, we should have serious doubts as to whether economic growth is their goal (particularly when income redistribution is the only thing close to a stated principle we've ever been able get out of our President).
Is it overly cynical to use the Political Power & Government Expansion Hypothesis above as our working assumption about what this government is up to? If we do, instead of arguing that all this is bad economics, we'll realize that this is Machiavellian politics of the highest order. It's the politics of "just scare the public and demonize the opposition." Only then will we begin to expose this unprecedented power grab for what it is, and save our Republic from inevitable decline; whatever the intentions of our leaders.